EPT London Main Event in October 2022, 27 left, one hand caught the eye: a raise flow The Portuguese Sergio Coutinho brought down the opponent fold the best hand.
Let’s see right away.
There are 27 players left in the tournament with blinds of 6k-12k and a BB ante. With a stack of 1.07M, Coutinho opens 28,000 QsJ of hijackings.
From Small Blind Vuilleumier with 1.84M Pin AQ and is limited to calling, the hand is also joined by Ben Heath in the big blind with AJ (911,000 stacks).
On the Q flop9J Vuilleumier leads 32k, Heath folds, Coutinho calls.
Turn K Vuilleumier continues 53k, Coutinho calls again.
river k Coutinhos fakes two pair: Vuilleumier bets 26,000, the Portuguese raises to 175,000 and takes the pot after his opponent folds.
When the board is worried
The special board weighs heavily on hand dynamics and is scary for both the gutshot and the fact that it fakes Coutinho’s two pair.
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Surely the hand would have been different even if the Frenchman had used a different river bet size.
This looks like a small value bet, but needs to be well balanced with hands where Vuilleumier is willing to call an opponent’s raise on this board. Conversely, it’s just a “che faceuppa” game.
The chances of an increase
After Vuilleumier bet 26,000 on the river, the pot is now 292,000. As for the call, the odds show it breaking even given its size subtle of the bet it is just 8%. We know Coutinho is zero.
If the Portuguese raises 175,000 in this pot, the opponent’s fold must at least happen 37% of the time because in the long run the move is not a loss. Very nice hand for him.
At the time of writing, 22 EPT Main London entrants remain, with Vuilleumier and Coutinho in ninth and tenth place respectively.